MMOGs today are works-in-progress. They appear as improvised experiments - ambiguous on theory, and rich on ingredients. In the ecosystem of MMOGs, optimists might believe that the best features will survive in the genetic pool through a process of value-testing and convergence. Co-opting words from Bruce Boston in another Terra Nova discussion:
In a similar way, over the next few years, I would guess that MMORPGs are going to be tested, twisted, expanded, contracted, redefined and morphed by Darwinian market forces that demand an answer to the age old question of "Is this adding value?" at each stage in the evolutionary process.
That developers might seek any advantage, in this competitive cauldron, is not surprising. Even if that means adding another level of virtualization to test a virtual world. Slightly ironic. But there they are. Folks are trying to simulate MMOG designs and infrastructure to test and explore its edges. Current efforts, however, seem balkanaized along well-bounded aspects of game-play or infrastructure: they are carving out the tractable bits and by-passing the (too?) hard stuff.
Flashback to an article last year in Gamasutra by Adam Carpenter. There he proposed using risk analysis techniques to play-balance hand-to-hand combat in RPGs. The basis for his methodology was to use Excel and a probability plugin (Palisade's Risk) to model player combat in a RPG game. The thrust of his approach reasonates more widely:
"Through correspondence with AC2's program manager, Matthew Ford, it was discovered that while AC2's developers tuned game balance by using numerical analysis techniques common to MMORPG development, neither AC2 or any other MMORPG in Ford's knowledge used the deep risk analysis methods described in this article." (See here, login required)
There is another established area of simulation in MMOGs. This one has roots in systems engineering where one very often sees simulation-based testing to stress and crack infrastructure weakness. Here, MMOGs use crude estimates of population behaviors to try to anticipate and answer such questions as: "what if everyone logged in after the Oscars, what would happen?" A good discussion about this space, and its edges, can be seen in this Mud-Dev thread:
Now, periodically I visit the Netlogo site. I am fascinated with what goes on there. Netlogo is, as they describe it "a cross-platform agent-based parallel modeling and simulation environment" whose focus is on education. For example, using their Hubnet add-on, one can conduct classroom-wide "participatory simulations".
In spite of its serious intentions, Netlogo has a frivioulous side: it is Logo! it is Turtles! It has a vast library of models online - plenty of ways to spend time exploring. One model I am constantly rediscovering is "Segregation"
- based on Schelling's work (Micromotives and Macrobehaviors). This Netlogo model is described as:
(modelling) the behavior of two types of turtles in a mythical pond. The red turtles and green turtles get along with one another. But each turtle wants to make sure that it lives near some of "its own." That is, each red turtle wants to live near at least some red turtles, and each green turtle wants to live near at least some green turtles. The simulation shows how these individual preferences ripple through the pond, leading to large-scale patterns.
Squint a bit, add a few more turtle types, label 'em as "Killers", "Achievers", "Socializers", "Explorers" (to our own Richard Bartle). Throw in a pinch of fantasy... Voila! What might we see? How groups of various types interact and impact each other? "Group types?" Echoes of this discussion can be found at this Terra Nova thread.
Can we model the vast-dimensional glory of players and their social networks in an MMOG? Grrr... Perhaps if there was just a little more information available about each player.
What if we have to take a test before we are allowed to play the game? A number of games such as Morrowwind (Elder Scrolls, a computer RPG) masterfully used in-story NPC interaction at the start of a game to customize your character before you played. Similar idea - except now, the lens would peer upon the player more thoroughly.
Is this just a fantasy? And if not, do we really want to go there?
-nathan
Posted by Nathan Combs on March 3, 2004 | Permalink
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Comments
Several years ago I proposed that you could create agents mirroring playstyles and patterns and let them loose in your actual MMO database to attempt to model things like min-maxing of equipment, areas or zones that are underutilized (a very common problem), population centers, etc.
But it's a non-trivial amount of modeling. You'd need to have a baseline for comparison, which would presumably be an already running game, along with collections of data to match the experimental results to. Then you'd iterate your agent behaviors and models until they matches the real game to a certain margin of error. Then you'd attempt to test changes within the world on that agent-driven testbed.
Appying it to another game, or even to the same game after accumulated changes, would be risky, though. After all, games select for certain user types and behaviors. It's quite likely that a generalized model would be difficult to develop.
If you could get it to the point where the agents evinced boredom, it would be a hellaciously powerful tool for churn management and game longevity. ;)
Posted by: Raph | March 3, 2004 11:16 AM
"What if we have to take a test before we are allowed to play the game?"
Like the Gypsy questions in Ultima 4... But this time, no tests. The best way is to make it an integral part of the gameplay. Watch the user's actions and determine his chosen answers based on what he does. Put him in the hot seat, tight spot, corner, whatever and see what they do. It doesn't have to stop there, the VW should be constantly re-evaluating the parameters of each player as they go about their game.
Take it one step further and use ths data to tailor the content provided to that particular user, so while your VW might be huge, filled with thousands of locations, quests, players, etc. you bring those that are most likely to appeal to a particular user one step closer to him so they stand out, engage him, drive him to the kind of experience he prefers, always keeping an eye for a change of pattern.
Ah... The game that knows what I want even before I do and gives it to me from a huge repertoire. ... Where do I sign up?
Posted by: DivineShadow | March 3, 2004 11:44 AM
Raph>Several years ago I proposed that you could create agents mirroring playstyles and patterns and let them loose in your actual MMO database to attempt to model things like min-maxing of equipment, areas or zones that are underutilized (a very common problem), population centers, etc.
Isn't this the same problem as designing good MMOG AI? The point being - not a trivial problem.
Posted by: Edward Castronova | March 3, 2004 01:15 PM
Oh, I didn't say it would be easy. It would, in fact, be monstrously difficult. :)
Posted by: Raph | March 3, 2004 02:07 PM
Yeah, that's what I am saying too! If we could simulate at that level, heck, we'd use the technology to actually build in game elements. And the problem is, modeling that kind of complexity is really hard.
I would if evolutionary algorithms are a possibility here? I think was once suggested to me by Fred Hapgood, a technology writer. Plants seeds for trees and folks and use simple rules to grow them generation by generation.
Posted by: Edward Castronova | March 3, 2004 03:40 PM
"Plants seeds for trees and folks and use simple rules to grow them generation by generation."
Looking at Linden Script this certainly seems doable in Second Life.
Posted by: DivineShadow | March 3, 2004 09:41 PM
You could certainly use genetic algorithms to try to build the agents, but then you wouldn't be assured that they'd actually develop into something that served as an adequate simulation of a playerbase.
Posted by: Raph Koster | March 3, 2004 11:18 PM
Are there devs or academics who have tried to model a complete MMOG abstractly? E.g. as a system of rules that can be analyzed/executed separately from the game implementation itself? Building sims against abstract models would be a heck of a lot easier.
I suppose there might two possibilities along these lines: devs who devs who abstractly model the game completely first, then test and build implementation; or academics who reverse-engineering an existing implementation. Or is everyone in such a rush, that the implementation is the game.
-nathan
Posted by: Nathan Combs | March 4, 2004 08:41 AM
Nathan> Or is everyone in such a rush, that the implementation is the game.
Yup. This also falls out of the fact that, per Raph's comments, that a usable simulation may be as hard or harder than actually building the game. Thus iterative design becomes the norm and the dev spend time (hopefully) building a system that allows rapid changes to be made to the design and code-base.
Also, to reinforce Raph's comment on GA's, while GA's are really interesting and have numerous applications in game development, using them to actually grow agents that approximate human activity in a complex MMOG would be an extremely challenging project. It's scope would most likely dwarf that of any MMO to date.
Posted by: Cory Ondrejka | March 4, 2004 08:53 AM
One issue I take with this is that despite the handy "grouping" system developers have for players... very few can be classified as just "Killers" or just "Achievers"... most all players enjoy all of those various elements to one degree or another. This is why those labels are routinely applied on a percentage basis and not as just a simple label.
If you build your game with the idea that every player can be lumped into one type or another you're setting yourself up for failure.
Posted by: Sourtone | March 4, 2004 09:07 AM
Nathan > Can we model the vast-dimensional glory of players and their social networks in an MMOG?
Modelling the fullness of a living vaste game universe with vast dimentions of players and their social networks would be anthropological research in the ‘field’ of virtual worlds instead of in fields like remote islands, slum-areas (The Social Order of the Slum, that’s a classic) or specific groups of people in NY. PPl in the social sciences seem to be attracted to virtual worlds as test environments for studying human behavior in a setting that is very controllable and possible to design. (check out Emotions in Humans and Artefacts, ed. R. Trappl, P. Petta, and S. Payr, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The MIT Press, 2002 – especially Bellmans “Emotions: Meaninful Mappings Between the Individual and Its World”) Im not a psychologist myself so I find it exhilarating to read about these methods.
